Novel Method for Estimating Time-Varying COVID-19 Transmission Rate

The transmission rate is an important indicator for characterizing a virus and estimating the risk of its outbreak in certain area, but it hard to measure. COVID-19, instance, has greatly affected world more than 3 years since early 2020, scholars have not yet found effective method obtain timely due fact that value COVID-19 constant dynamic, always changing over time places. Therefore, order estimate dynamic we performed following: first, utilized rolling series construct time-varying model and, based on model, managed mainland China; second, verify result, used obtained as explanatory variable conduct empirical research impact pandemic China’s stock markets. Eventually, result revealed had significant negative markets, which, some extent, confirms validity measurement this paper. Notably, constructed paper, combined with local conditions, can only be China also other countries or regions would applicable calculate pathogens, limited which coincidently fills gaps research. Furthermore, might play part regulating anti-pandemic governmental policies could help investors stakeholders make decisions setting.